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'Be Careful, You Are Speaking to Arafat'

By Max Boot, Wall Street Journal 14 December 1998


AMMAN, Jordan -- President Clinton's helicopter is scheduled to land today at Yasser Arafat International Airport -- a k a the Gaza strip -- putting the official imprimatur of the U.S. on a nascent Palestinian state run by a dictator who names airports after himself. What's often forgotten is that a few miles to the east; Jordan actually has more citizens of Palestinian origin -- about three million -- than the West Bank and Gaza Strip combined.

Last week a small group of journalists and policy analysts organized by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy met separately with the leaders of both "Palestinian" states. It was quite a telling contrast.

Crown Prince Hassan -- Jordan's regent while his brother, King Hussein, recuperates in the U.S. from cancer treatment -- is a polo-playing Oxonian with a well-cut double-breasted suit and a hearty laugh. During a sumptuous dinner at his palace, the king's family is charming and informal. In their mainly British accents they talk candidly about their country's problems and potential.

Yasser Arafat, by contrast, still acts like a graduate of the Saddam Hussein charm school. He showed up for a bizarre midnight interview at his Ramallah, West Bank, compound on Dec. 8 wearing his trademark military fatigues, and proceeded to treat the assembled visitors like disobedient soldiers.

Eyes Bulging

Asked why a Palestinian constitution posted on the Internet still calls for the "eradication of Zionist ... existence," Mr. Arafat denounces the document as a lie written by an "idiot" aide to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "Be careful when you are speaking to me!" Mr. Arafat adds menacingly, eyes bulging, finger wagging. "Be careful, you are speaking to Arafat!"

So why is the thuggish Palestinian Authority chairman, but not the jovial crown prince, favored with a presidential visit? That question speaks volumes about how skewed U.S. policy on the Middle East "peace process" has become. The U.S. seems in danger of forgetting who its real friends in the region are -- and they most certainly don't include Mr. Arafat.

The Palestinian Authority chairman has taken about $2.5 billion from the West in recent years, and the U.S. has just organized another $3 billion in pledges. Yet according to the PA's own auditors, up to 40% of Mr. Arafat's budget has been stolen or misused. Meanwhile, Mr. Arafat has flouted his treaty obligations whenever it suits his purpose to do so. Just in the weeks leading up to the presidential visit, the PA chairman has:

Incited and perhaps even organized rioting in his territories in order to pressure Israel into releasing hundreds of Palestinian prisoners with "blood on their hands." After the State Department publicly stated that Israel had kept its treaty commitments on prisoners, Nabil Shaath, a top Arafat aide, told our group the U.S. was "vile."

Threatened unilaterally to declare a Palestinian state encompassing all of the West Bank and part of Jerusalem on May 5, when the interim negotiating period under the Oslo accord expires. Israel would view such a declaration as a casus belli.

Refused to root out the "infrastructure" supporting Hamas suicide bombers, as called for under the Wye River Accord. Last Wednesday our group of journalists was able to visit the Gaza headquarters of Ismail Abu Shanab, a leading Hamas figure. Sitting in front of a Hamas seal, Mr. Shanab warned that his organization might target "the ugly face of American intelligence" -- CIA agents whose participation in the peace process Mr. Arafat himself welcomed.

To be sure, King Hussein of Jordan also doesn't have a spotless record in cracking down on Hamas. A senior Israeli military official reports that Hamas leaders based in Amman were involved in a plot, foiled by Israel just before the Wye conference, to kill many Israeli civilians with explosives. And of course during the Gulf War, King Hussein -- keeping a wary eye on 100,000 Iraqis in his country -- felt obliged to support his neighborhood bully, Saddam Hussein. But when it comes to fighting terrorism, Israeli officials offer far more praise for Jordan's efforts than those of the Palestinian Authority.

Jordan's army emphasized its crucial role in keeping the peace by helicoptering our group of scribblers to Umm Qais in the "killing zone" where Israel, Jordan and Syria meet. The Jordanian army claims that since 1990 it has intercepted more than 700 infiltration attempts from Syria aimed at smuggling illegal weapons into Israel and the West Bank. Farther east, along the Iraqi border, a Jordanian armored division was involved in intense firefights this summer against well-armed, well-organized gangs of smugglers trying to bring in everything from contraband sheep to drugs and ammunition.

In the strategic calculus of the Middle East, Jordan is a small but valuable counterweight to missile-toting bullies like Syria, Iraq and Iran. Along with Israel and Turkey, Jordan is part of a de facto pro-Western alliance.

The biggest threat to this regional buffer zone is none other than Mr. Arafat. In 1970 the PLO tried to take over Jordan, only to be put down by King Hussein's security forces during "Black September." Today the two sides still view each other with suspicion; Palestinians and Jordanians are competing for control of the wakf (religious endowment) that runs Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem.

The prospect of King Yasser ruling Jordan terrifies Israeli security officials -- and it should. The Hashemite regime is only a bit more secure than King Hussein's fragile health. The king, who has ruled since 1953, has been able to win the affection of his citizens through a mix of charisma, crafty maneuvering and occasional displays of toughness. Nobody knows whether Crown Prince Hassan or the next generation of Hashemites will be adroit enough to keep the allegiance of their Palestinian subjects. Should the Hashemites fall, the result could be an Iraqi or Syrian ascendancy stretching to the gates of Jerusalem.

The key to heading off such a dire development is, well, economic development. Jordanians grumble that they have yet to reap the economic benefits of peace with Israel. While Jordan has lost access to the Iraqi and Gulf markets since the Gulf War, it has yet to establish significant trade with the West Bank or Israel. Jordanians like to blame Israeli trade barriers, but they should also look inward: Jordan's economic backwardness is due to its socialist economy. Not even the telephones (a state monopoly) work properly; Jordan is one of the few countries on earth where an AT&T calling card can't be used.

'Hostility Dissipates Quickly'

One of the few bright spots on Jordan's bleak economic horizon is near the northern town of Irbid, home to a Qualifying Industrial Zone, where Jordanian and Israeli companies cooperate in producing goods that are shipped duty-free to the U.S. (but not to the protectionist European Union). A Palestinian manager at an underwear factory here, partially owned by an Israeli firm, is the daughter of a leading Islamic radical. "Such ventures normalize hostile impulses," says Omar Z. Salah, the ebullient young Jordanian who founded the company. "Hostility dissipates very quickly."

But economic development is a long-term process. In the short term, the U.S. needs to do all it can to bolster the Hashemite regime. That includes providing more military aid to Jordan, whose underfunded army needs to replace aging equipment. Perhaps the money can come from the generous U.S. aid package to Israel, which has 5.5 million people to Jordan's 4.3 million, but whose economy is more than four times the size of Jordan's.

Above all, the U.S. should be careful to send public signals that bolster the Hashemite regime and don't unduly help its brutish rivals in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. When dealing with the Palestinians, Americans should heed some important words of advice: "Be careful."


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