In the interests of growth
By Nehemia Strasler Friday, August 6, 1999
Finance Minister Avraham "Beiga" Shochat firmly holds the
view that there is a direct connection between the fact that
the economy is still in the doldrums and the fact that the
Central Bank has kept interest rates at extremely high levels.
Shochat is convinced that the brunt of these rates are not
borne by the captains of finance and industry, but by
households and small businesses.
According to his calculations, the overdrafts amassed by
domestic households come to approximately NIS 80 billion.
Since the households are servicing this credit at interest
rates of around 13 percent, it means that they are paying NIS
10 billion annually in interest. Large companies and the top
percentiles of the population are putting their surplus cash in
shekel deposits, on which they are earning high interest. As
he sees it, the high interest rates have become a regressive
form of taxation, a social obscenity that increases the gaps
between society's haves and have-nots. If the price for
changing this situation is a slightly increased inflation rate,
so be it: Shochat does not think this would be a disaster.
All his talk of curing social ills, however, cannot mask the
fact that Beiga has his basic economic facts all wrong, and is
trying to embark on a policy flawed by cardinal mistakes.
The first one is the assumption that the recession is the
result of the Central Bank's monetary policy. This does not
hold water, and if Beiga wants to look at the face that
launched the recession he would do well to look at the
nearest mirror. It was the spendthrift wage agreements and
widening deficits he sanctioned during his previous term at
the Finance Ministry that toppled the economy into its
current state. This view is held by many senior officials,
including Beiga's hand-picked choice for the treasury's
director-general, Avi Ben Basat.
The second mistake is his assumption that the brunt of the
interest burden is borne by the have-nots. A hefty portion of
that NIS 10 billion annual debt service is paid by the
self-employed, a group that includes retailers and
wholesalers of any number of goods, importers, lawyers,
accountants, dentists, optometrists and other individuals not
known for their poverty-stricken circumstances.
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